A new study from Climate Analytics shows that, even after years of insufficient action, the world can still return to well below 1.5°C of warming this century – if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition” in climate action, starting now.
The analysis, published in the new report, Rescuing 1.5°C: new evidence on highest possible ambition to deliver the Paris Agreement, updates IPCC AR6 scenarios to reflect today’s higher starting emissions and set out what is needed to limit overshoot above 1.5oC, and to get temperatures back well below 1.5oC before 2100. The report’s Highest Possible Ambition scenario shows how transformative climate action, scaling up renewables and electrifying the global economy, can slow and then halt global warming before 2050, and limit peak warming to around 1.7oC. Temperatures could then be brought back down well below 1.5oC by 2100, driven by a rapid fossil fuel phase-out, strong reductions in methane emissions, and scaling up carbon removal technologies.
The new scenario provides a roadmap to rescue 1.5oC. In the scenario, global CO2 emissions reach net zero before 2050, and global greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero around 2060. These milestones are key to stopping temperatures rising by 2050 and then putting them on a declining path to well below 1.5oC by 2100. “Overshoot of 1.5oC is a woeful political failure and will bring increased damages and risk of tipping points that otherwise could’ve been avoided. But this roadmap shows it is still within our power to bring warming back well below 1.5oC by 2100. We must do all we can to limit any time we spend above this safety threshold to minimise the risk of irreversible climate damages and the devastation that could be caused by crossing tipping points.” – Bill Hare, CEO, Climate Analytics “The last five years have cost us precious time in the critical decade of climate action.
However, they have also seen a revolution in renewables and batteries, which have shattered records across the globe. Riding these tailwinds can help turbocharge our clean energy future and catch-up on lost time. The window to minimize overshoot is still open, but narrowing fast. The choice is ours.” Dr Neil Grant, Senior Expert, Climate Analytics
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